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According to Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom, Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market in the coming months as its traditional four-year cycle is dead.
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,” said Hayes in a Thursday blog post titled “Long Live the King!”
Hayes believes that while the four-year pattern has previously worked, it’s no longer applicable and is bound to “fail this time”.
End Of Four-Year Boom-Bust Cycle?
Since its introduction in 2009, Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, characterized by a bull run leading up to and following the halving event, followed by a harsh crypto winter that typically starts 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial reward halving.
The top crypto’s fourth halving took place in April 2024. If history is anything to go by, then Bitcoin should plunge soon after peaking, likely kicking off a year-long painful bear market.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, however, has contended that Bitcoin’s price cycles are driven by the supply and quantity of money, mainly USD and the Chinese yuan, rather than four-year patterns centred around mining reward halving events as widely believed.
Bear markets started when monetary conditions tightened in major economies, not because of the four-year halving cycle, he noted.
Why This Cycle Is Different
The ongoing bull market is likely to continue, making the four-year cycle obsolete as monetary conditions are expected to stay accommodative, with money supply growth likely to increase rather than shrink.
Notably, the US Treasury is draining $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo program into the markets by issuing more Treasury bills, and US President Donald Trump wants to “run the economy hot” with easier monetary policy to reduce its debt load.
Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts in September 2025 despite inflation being above its target. Two more rate reductions are expected this year, signaling a more accommodative monetary stance.
Hayes further suggested that while China won’t fuel this rally as much as it did in prior cycles, Beijing’s focus on ending deflation suggests it is unlikely to drain fiat liquidity, bolstering continued price gains for BTC.
The crypto billionaire summarized this outlook by stating:
“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!”
