Holiday 2025 won’t be decided by a single tentpole or a coupon code. Shoppers are discovering differently and moving from inspiration to purchase with fewer detours—and higher expectations. Based on Rakuten Advertising’s proprietary consumer and network data across key categories and retail moments, several shifts stand out. They point to strategies that prize clarity, credibility, and channel fit over a singularly promotion-focused plan and consumers are seeking value over all.
How discovery is changing
Discovery is moving from keywords to context. Consumers want confidence and curation, turning to trusted publisher environments, creator content, and assistive AI that surfaces recommendations in the moments that matter. According to Similarwebguide traffic averaged 13.1K weekly clicks Oct–Jan, outpacing Uncommon Goods (12.4K) and Amazon (10.8K), while “gifts for men” ‑type queries draw 500K+ monthly clicks in peak season. In our holiday report, learn how you can update your strategy to capture this change in consumer behavior.
Value is contextual
Value looks different by audience and moment. For some, it’s sharp pricing on essentials; for others, it’s convenience, quality assurance, exclusivity, or confidence in origin. Blanket promotions can move units, but compress margin and teach the wrong behaviors. Based on Rakuten Advertising’s proprietary consumer data, over half of consumers report struggling with necessities, and 42% are adjusting spending to afford gifts, while 47% say tariffs will impact their purchasing.
Journeys are more intentional
Casual browsing is giving way to decisive visits. Now is the time to showcase your products with clarity; offer transparent availability, smart bundles, and strong assurances to win decisive shoppers. Based on data from Similarweb, marketplaces now draw the largest audiences in ecommerce and continue to grow YoY; while margins can be thinner, conversion rates are often higher; use that momentum without diluting brand equity.
Partnerships matter more
Traditional publishers, affiliate collaborators, creators, and deal-focused communities influence different moments—from early inspiration to last-‑mile reassurance. Leaders who combine data-‑driven decision-making and creative solutions with people‑-driven partnerships are getting and staying ahead this holiday season. Influencer impact is not uniform, food creators sway purchase intent most (65.7%), with beauty, health & fitness, and fashion close behind, according to Rakuten Advertising consumer research.
It’s mission-critical to assign clear roles to each partner type and reward contribution throughout the consumer journey. Just as important: protecting the path to purchase during peak spikes with real ‑time, AI-‑powered tools that guard against ad hijacking and fraud.
What to watch as plans lock for Q4:
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Discovery concentrates on credible assistive environments; context beats sheer reach.
- Value is plural; reflect the version your audience expects—price, convenience, exclusivity, or origin.
- Purposeful shoppers favor low ‑friction paths across apps, marketplaces, and owned channels.
- Partner ecosystems are a growth lever; align roles and keep the experience protected during peak. Our research shows that 85% of consumers avoid brands with unsafe experiences.
- Confidence cues, delivery, returns, and authenticity, can be decisive for late ‑season buyers. See category-by-category breakouts in the full report.
What it means for marketing decision-makers:
This season rewards a clear, adaptable strategy that meets customers where they are and backs the partners and surfaces that actually drive incremental demand. The edge won’t come from spending more, but from showing up in the right places with the right promise—and committing to that mix through peak.
For more on how to maximize your strategy for Black Friday and beyond, check out the full report from Rakuten Advertising: Beyond Black Friday: Maximizing Holiday Performance. In it, you’ll uncover data-driven strategies, actionable insights, and proven performance marketing solutions to stretch demand beyond Cyber Week, boost ROAS, and protect margin.
